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Data Graphic for June 2010

June 2010 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management, adjusted for season and for monthly workdays, fell 1.9% in June, taking away two-thirds of May’s 3.1% gain. This release comes in the midst of a string of other disappointing releases that have raised concerns about future growth and ignited fears of a double-dip recession. The June PCI is not as worrisome as it appears, however, for three reasons.

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Data Graphic for May 2010

May 2010 Index

Commentary

The 3.1 percent spike in May's PCI "is as good as it gets" according to PCI Chief Economist Ed Leamer. The number suggests economic recovery is on pace for GDP growth in the healthy range of 3 to 5 percent for the second quarter of 2010, moving closer to the 5 to 6 percent increase necessary to drive down the unemployment rate.

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Data Graphic for April 2010

April 2010 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management, adjusted for seasonality and for monthly workdays, fell 0.3% in April, returning to its level of three months ago. The recovery optimism created by a very strong PCI in December of last year has slowly eroded. The three month growth of the PCI illustrated below has fallen each subsequent month from the exceptional December 2009 rate of 16% per year and in April has fallen to zero.

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Data Graphic for March 2010

March 2010 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management staged a healthy comeback in March, with the PCI growing by 1%, making up for February’s snowstorm-induced decline of 0.7%. The adjusted index grew from 107.4 to 108.5, continuing its climb from a recessionary low of 100.7 in June 2009. With the PCI essentially flat over the first two months of the year, the March increase signals the U.S. economy remains in steady recovery. Continuing another positive trend, the March PCI shows growth over the prior year period for the fourth consecutive month. This follows twenty-two consecutive months of year-over-year declines experienced prior to December 2009.

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Data Graphic for February 2010

February 2010 Index

Commentary

Results from the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management show the U.S. economy essentially flat over the first two months of the year, with a February decline offsetting the modest gains previously reported for January. With the index number this month enhanced to include adjustments for monthly workdays as well as seasonality, February fell 0.7%, following January’s increase of 0.6%. This flat performance follows a robust 2.8% gain in December.

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Data Graphic for January 2010

January 2010 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index by UCLA Anderson School of Management fell in January at the annualized rate of 36.8%, almost completely offsetting the increase in December. The more reliable three-month moving average for January managed to show a 3.3% gain at an annualized rate, following an exceptional annualized rate of 14.6% in the previous month.

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Data Graphic for December 2009

December 2009 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index rose in December at the phenomenal annualized rate of 60.8%, following a November number that grew at an annualized rate of 8.6%. The three-month moving average for December increased at the annualized rate of 14.5%, following the 11.1% growth the month before.

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