July 2010 Index
Commentary
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management, adjusted for season and for monthly workdays, rose 1.7% in July, not quite offsetting the 1.9% decline in June. Concerns about future growth and even a double-dip recession were expressed in June both by frequent news stories and by frequent Google searches. The June decline in the PCI of 1.9% added fuel to the fire, but in last month's release we explained that the negative effect of Memorial Day on trucking activity leaked into June because Memorial Day was the last day of May, and furthermore, the second half of June was stronger than the first half. In other words, it wasn't as bad as it seemed.
