April 2012 Report

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) issued by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation rose 0.1 percent in April following the 0.3 percent increase in March and the 0.7 percent increase in February. The PCI in the three months from February to April is below the previous three months by 1.2% at an annualized rate.

March 2012 Report

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation rose 0.3 percent in March following the 0.7 percent increase in February and the 1.7 percent decrease in January. The first quarter PCI is below the fourth quarter of last year by 4.9 percent at an annualized rate.

February 2012 Index

Commentary

With the first two months of the quarter known, the PCI must grow by over 4 percent from February to March to allow the PCI to grow positively in the first quarter of 2012 compared with the last quarter of 2011. "The continuing weakness of the PCI is signaling that, perhaps, the recovery in home building has not yet taken hold. The recent improvement in building permits and housing starts may get building going again and therefore, trucking as well, as it has been said that it takes 17 truckloads to build a home. If we get the saws and hammers going again, we will have a real recovery with much healthier job growth," said Ed Leamer, chief economist for the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index and Director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

January 2012 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, fell a surprising 1.7 percent in January. It seems difficult to square the behavior of the PCI with the evident improvement in a number of economic indicators, most notably the increase in payroll jobs and decrease in initial claims for unemployment. The PCI also appears out-of-sync with Industrial Production and Real Retail Sales which continue to grow in a healthy manner while the PCI is stalled out. We believe, however, that the year-over-year changes in the PCI are in fact in sync with the overall economic picture.

December 2011 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, rose 0.2 percent in December following the 0.1 percent increase in November and the 1.1 percent increase in October. Unfortunately, the combined effect of the three consecutive positive months was not enough to offset the weakness of trucking last summer and the PCI in December 2011 is 1.2 percent below its June 2011 level and 0.7 percent below its level a year ago in December 2010.

November 2011 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation rose 0.1 percent in November following the 1.1 percent increase in October. The combined effect of the positive October and November data was not enough to offset the summer weakness. Over the last three months, the PCI declined at an annualized rate of 4.8 percent compared with the preceding three months. On a year-over-year basis the November PCI was only 0.9 percent above last year.

October 2011 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation rose 1.1 percent in October after three consecutive negative months: -1.0 in September, -1.4 percent in August and -0.2 percent in July. The October data offers a welcome relief from the double-dip fears that were rampant a month ago, but one month does not mean a new trend. Until we get a series of positive months, it remains a she-loves-me, she-loves-me-not economy with bad news followed by good followed by bad.

September 2011 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation fell 1.0 percent in September on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis, following a 1.4 percent decline in August and a 0.2 percent decline in July. In the last three months, the PCI has declined at an annualized rate of 10 percent per year. This rate of decline has been exceeded only in the deep recession of 2008/09, and equaled only once outside of a recession in March 2000.

August 2011 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation fell 1.4 percent in August on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis, following a 0.2 percent decline in July. Based on the July and August data, the PCI will likely decline in the third quarter and suggests GDP growth of zero to 1.0 percent.

July 2011 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation fell 0.2 percent on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis, offsetting some of the relatively strong 1.0 percent gain posted in June. The second half of 2011 has started on a down note, but is a continuation of the wobbly economic performance that has persisted since the inventory restocking period ended a year ago.

June 2011 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation rose 1.0 percent in June on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis, a welcome rebound following declines in the previous two months. Despite the stronger performance in June, the economy continues to remain in idle with the PCI remaining below its level at the end of the first quarter.

May 2011 Index

Commentary

On a year over year basis, the Pulse of Commerce Index was flat in May. This was disappointing in that it ended a string of seventeen straight months of year over year improvement in the index. One glimmer of good news is that May of last year was the strongest month of 2010, and this month's result nearly cleared that hurdle. Nevertheless, the PCI showed no growth, and this is another indication that the economy is stuck in neutral.

April 2011 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation fell 0.5 percent on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis in April, marking a continuation of the see-saw economic performance experienced over the past twelve months. Though down in April, the decline offset only a fraction of the exceptional 2.7 percent gain posted in March, which was sufficient to drive continued growth in the three month moving average of the PCI.

March 2011 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation rose 2.7% on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis in March, more than offsetting the 0.3% decline in January and the 1.5% decline in February. On a quarter over quarter basis, the PCI is up 3.9% at an annualized rate, a welcome acceleration from the weak growth of the PCI in the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2010. It's better, but not yet exceptional.

February 2011 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) fell 1.5% on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis in February, after falling 0.3% in January. The PCI in the first two months of 2011 has now given up all of December's exceptional 1.8% gain. Because of the very strong performance in December, however, the three month annualized moving average in the index was still up 5.4% over the previous three month period. Furthermore, February marked the 15th consecutive month of year-over-year growth in the index. Both of these data points suggest that the economic recovery is intact, but it remains tepid.

January 2011 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation fell 0.3% on a seasonally and monthly workday adjusted basis in January, giving up some of December's exceptional 1.8% sequential gain. Because of the very strong December showing, the three-month annualized moving average is up 5.1% and gaining strength. This follows a string of weak or negative readings experienced in the second half of last year, further supporting our view that there is no evidence for a "double dip" in 2011. Importantly, however, we are not yet seeing signs of the growth required to drive meaningful employment gains.

December 2010 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) surged 2.4% on a seasonally and monthly workday adjusted basis in December, according to the latest report issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation. This month's strong performance, added to November's 0.4% increase, was enough to offset three previous consecutive months of decline and pushed the PCI above its previous peak for the year established last May. Much of December's notable increase in the adjusted data is a consequence of the fact that the week between Christmas and New Years was stronger than usual. Even though December overall was three percent below the previous December peak month in 2007, diesel fuel purchases in the inter-holiday week exceeded 2007 levels, the first time this has happened.

November 2010 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) by the UCLA Anderson School of Management, adjusted for season and for monthly workdays, grew 0.4% in November which was not quite enough to offset the decline of 0.6% in the previous month, and not nearly enough to offset the 2.1% decline in the PCI since July. Though on a year-over-year basis the PCI is up 4.5%, the three month moving average has been declining for four months, continuing to suggest problems with the goods components of the economy.

October 2010 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) by UCLA Anderson School of Management, adjusted for season and for monthly workdays, fell 0.6% in October following a decline of 0.5% in September and a decline of 1.0% in August; which was the first three consecutive months of decline since January 2009, when the U.S. was still deep in recession. The October data beings the fourth quarter on a down note, alerting us that summer's malaise is still very much with us.

September 2010 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) by UCLA Anderson School of Management, adjusted for season and for monthly workdays, fell 0.5% in September after falling 1.0% in August, which was the first time we have experienced a consecutive monthly decline since January 2009. August and September together this year have produced the worst combined two-month decline since the recessionary months of December 2009 and January 2010.

August 2010 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) by UCLA Anderson School of Management, adjusted for season and for monthly workdays, fell 1.0% in August, causing a decline in the three-month moving average for the first time since June of 2009, near the end of the recession.

July 2010 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) by UCLA Anderson School of Management, adjusted for season and for monthly workdays, rose 1.7% in July, not quite offsetting the 1.9% decline in June. Concerns about future growth and even a double-dip recession were expressed in June both by frequent news stories and by frequent Google searches. The June decline in the PCI of 1.9% added fuel to the fire, but in last month's release we explained that the negative effect of Memorial Day on trucking activity leaked into June because Memorial Day was the last day of May, and furthermore, the second half of June was stronger than the first half. In other words, it wasn't as bad as it seemed.

June 2010 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) by UCLA Anderson School of Management, adjusted for season and for monthly workdays, fell 1.9% in June, taking away two-thirds of May's 3.1% gain. This release comes in the midst of a string of other disappointing releases that have raised concerns about future growth and ignited fears of a double-dip recession. The June PCI is not as worrisome as it appears, however, for three reasons.

May 2010 Index

Commentary

The 3.1 percent spike in May's PCI "is as good as it gets" according to PCI Chief Economist Ed Leamer. The number suggests economic recovery is on pace for GDP growth in the healthy range of 3 to 5 percent for the second quarter of 2010, moving closer to the 5 to 6 percent increase necessary to drive down the unemployment rate.

April 2010 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) by UCLA Anderson School of Management, adjusted for seasonality and for monthly workdays, fell 0.3% in April, returning to its level of three months ago. The recovery optimism created by a very strong PCI in December of last year has slowly eroded. The three month growth of the PCI illustrated below has fallen each subsequent month from the exceptional December 2009 rate of 16% per year and in April has fallen to zero.

March 2010 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) by UCLA Anderson School of Management staged a healthy comeback in March, with the PCI growing by 1%, making up for February's snowstorm-induced decline of 0.7%. The adjusted index grew from 107.4 to 108.5, continuing its climb from a recessionary low of 100.7 in June 2009. With the PCI essentially flat over the first two months of the year, the March increase signals the U.S. economy remains in steady recovery. Continuing another positive trend, the March PCI shows growth over the prior year period for the fourth consecutive month. This follows twenty-two consecutive months of year-over-year declines experienced prior to December 2009.

February 2010 Index

Commentary

Results from the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) by UCLA Anderson School of Management show the U.S. economy essentially flat over the first two months of the year, with a February decline offsetting the modest gains previously reported for January. With the index number this month enhanced to include adjustments for monthly workdays as well as seasonality, February fell 0.7%, following January's increase of 0.6%. This flat performance follows a robust 2.8% gain in December.

January 2010 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index by UCLA Anderson School of Management fell in January at the annualized rate of 36.8%, almost completely offsetting the increase in December. The more reliable three-month moving average for January managed to show a 3.3% gain at an annualized rate, following an exceptional annualized rate of 14.6% in the previous month.

December 2009 Index

Commentary

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index rose in December at the phenomenal annualized rate of 60.8%, following a November number that grew at an annualized rate of 8.6%. The three-month moving average for December increased at the annualized rate of 14.5%, following the 11.1% growth the month before.