08.11.2010
1.7 percent increase further dispels fears of double-dip recession
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., August 11, 2010 – All signs continue to point to an economy in recovery with the latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management. The July PCI climbed 1.7 percent after dropping 1.9 percent in June.
Though the PCI fell significantly in June, a careful examination of the daily data revealed that June was not as bad as the headline number suggested because of a late Memorial Day and due to the second half of June being stronger than the first. This
07.13.2010
Index experts say don’t be misled by June’s drop…there’s more to the number than meets the eye
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., July 13, 2010 – The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management tumbled 1.9 percent in June after its impressive 3.1 percent gain in May. Coming in the midst of other disappointing economic reports, the PCI’s drop seemingly reinforces the fear that the economy is on the brink of a double-dip recession, but further analysis tells a different story, according to PCI Chief Economist Edward Leamer.
“While June’s number is substantially down, erasing two-thirds of May’s great gain,
06.10.2010
Year-Over-Year Increase Approaches Growth Rate Required to Drive Down Unemployment
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., June 10, 2010 – With a monthly increase not seen since February 1999, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management climbed 3.1 percent in May. The increase represents the strongest indicator yet from the PCI that the U.S. economy is on the upswing. The May results suggest the recovery is on pace for GDP growth in the healthy range of 3 to 5 percent for the second quarter of 2010, moving closer to the 5 to 6 percent increase necessary to drive...
3 Comment(s) »05.12.2010
Year-Over-Year Growth is Positive but Remains Stuck at a Slow Rate
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., May 12, 2010 – With the release of April’s figures, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management is showing flat, overall performance during the first four months of 2010. The PCI in April fell 0.3 percent, suggesting the economic recovery may have stalled, although an uptick in consumer spending could continue to drive a slow but steady recovery. Year-over-year growth of 6.5 percent in the PCI marks the fifth straight month of steady increase at “better than normal” levels. However, year-over-year growth...
0 Comment(s) »04.13.2010
March Gain of 1 Percent Puts Q1 2010 GDP Growth at High End of Expectations
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., April 13, 2010 –The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management staged a healthy comeback in March, with the PCI growing by 1 percent, making up for February’s snowstorm-induced decline of 0.7 percent. The adjusted index grew from 107.4 to 108.5, continuing its climb from a recessionary low of 100.7 in June 2009. With the PCI essentially flat over the first two months of the year, the March increase signals the U.S. economy remains in steady recovery. Continuing another...
0 Comment(s) »03.10.2010
Flat Growth Over First Two Months of 2010 Suggests a Strong March Needed to Sustain GDP Growth
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., March 10, 2010 – Results from the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management show the U.S. economy essentially flat over the first two months of the year, with a February decline offsetting the modest gains previously reported for January. With the index number this month enhanced to include adjustments for monthly workdays as well as seasonality, February fell 0.7 percent, following January’s increase of 0.6 percent. This flat performance follows a robust 2.8 percent gain in...
0 Comment(s) »02.10.2010
Index Drops in January after Exceptionally Strong December; Foretells Industrial Production Index
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., Feb. 10, 2010 – Results from a major new econometric report – the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ by UCLA Anderson School of Management – show the U.S. economy fell in January after a significant increase in December, with the index falling at an annualized rate of 36.8 percent. The more reliable three-month moving average for January managed to show a 3.3 percent gain at an annualized rate following the exceptional annualized rate of 14.6 percent in the previous month.
The index is based on an analysis of...
0 Comment(s) »02.10.2010
New Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ Leverages Fuel-Consumption Data to Measure U.S. Economic Activity; Mirrors Industrial Production Number
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., Feb. 10, 2010 – Ceridian Corporation today announced the release of a new economic indicator, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ by UCLA Anderson School of Management, developed in conjunction with economists at UCLA Anderson School of Management and Charles River Associates. It is a first of its kind indicator tracking the state and possible future direction of the U.S. economy. Ceridian today simultaneously announced the January index results, which showed a drop in January after a significant increase in December.
The...
0 Comment(s) »01.14.2010
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index showed the U.S. economy improved significantly in December 2009, with the index jumping at an annualized rate of 60.8 percent, following a decent November number that grew at an annualized rate of 8.6 percent. The last two months of 2009 made solid moves forward, but the fourth quarter of 2009 (October – December) grew more slowly at a 7.3 percent rate. The fourth quarter results include a disappointing October and suggest the economic recovery will not be strong enough to drive down the unemployment level much below 10 percent any time soon.
