01.11.2012
Compared to Prior Year, the Pulse is Down 0.7 Percent
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., January 11, 2012 The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, rose 0.2 percent in December following the 0.1 percent increase in November and the 1.1 percent increase in October.
Although December’s news is positive, the combined effect of the three consecutive positive months was not enough to offset the weakness of trucking last summer and the PCI in December 2011 is 1.2 percent below its June 2011 level. In the past three
12.13.2011
Compared to November 2010, the PCI is Up 0.9 Percent
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., December 13, 2011 The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation rose 0.1 percent in November following a 1.1 percent increase in October.
Over the past three months, compared to the prior three months, the PCI declined at an annualized rate of 4.8 percent. On a year-over-year basis, the PCI grew 0.9 percent in November compared to the 1.3 percent year-over-year increase in October. “The continuing weakness in the PCI is out-of-sync with
11.09.2011
But decline in August leaves the three-month moving average still falling
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., November 9, 2011 The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index®(PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, rose 1.1 percent in October after three consecutive months of negative numbers.
Over the past three months, compared to the prior three months, the PCI declined at an annualized rate of 5.8 percent and the PCI remains lower than it was during most of the first half of 2011. “The October data offer some welcome relief from the double-dip fears that were rampant a
10.12.2011
Alarming news for the third quarter and beyond
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., October 12, 2011 The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index®(PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, fell 1.0 percent in September on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis, following a 1.4 percent decline in August and a 0.2 percent decline in July.
With hopes that September data would be positive, last month we wrote ‘Based on the July and August data, the PCI will likely decline in the third quarter and this suggests GDP growth of zero to 1.0 percent.’ Ed Leamer, chief
09.13.2011
Sluggish Economy Looking for a New Growth Engine
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., September 13, 2011 The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation fell 1.4 percent in August on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis, following a 0.2 percent decline in July.
“July and August results indicate that the PCI will decline in the third quarter suggesting GDP growth of 0.0 to 1.0 percent,” said Ed Leamer, chief economist for the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. “The August number supports the pattern
08.10.2011
Economy Remains on a Wobbly, Uncertain Growth Course
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., August 10, 2011 The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation dipped 0.2 percent in July on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis, offsetting some of the relatively strong 1.0 percent gain posted in June.
“In July, the U.S. economy remained in ‘she loves me, she loves me not’ mode,” said Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. “July’s result falls in the ‘she loves me not’ category and represents a continuation
07.13.2011
Economy Remains on a Wobbly, Uncertain Growth Course
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., July 13, 2011 The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation rose 1.0 percent in June on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis, a welcome rebound following declines in the previous two months. Despite the stronger performance in June, the economy continues to remain in idle with the PCI remaining below its level at the end of the first quarter.
“Over the past year the U.S. economy has been in ‘she loves me, she loves me not’
06.08.2011
Economy Idling – PCI Calls for Tepid GDP Growth
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., June 8, 2011. The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation fell 0.9 percent on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis in May, after falling 0.5 percent in April.
“The index has now declined in four of the first five months of 2011, and in eight of the past twelve months,” said Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. “The PCI makes it clear that the high-growth
05.11.2011
Holds on to most of exceptional 2.7 percent gain in March. Recovery continues as Index posts 17th straight month of year-over-year growth See-saw economic performance persists – GDP outlook good, not great
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., May 11, 2011 The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation fell 0.5 percent on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis in April, marking a continuation of the see-saw economic performance experienced over the past twelve months.
“Though down in April, the decline offset only a fraction of the exceptional 2.7 percent gain
04.12.2011
Economic recovery intact - Index posts 16th straight month of year-over-year growth
On track for a good, but not great, GDP release for Q1 2011
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., April 12, 2011 – The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers, rose 2.7% on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis in March, more than offsetting the 0.3% decline in January and the 1.5% decline in February. On a quarter over quarter basis, the PCI is up 3.9% at an annualized rate, a welcome acceleration from the
03.09.2011
Economic recovery slows but continues as February marks 15th consecutive month of year-over-year growth
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., March 9, 2011 – The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers, fell 1.5 percent during the month of February. Coupled with the 0.3 percent loss from January, this latest data eliminates the strong gain (1.8 percent) experienced in December 2010. However, February marks the fifteenth straight month of year over year growth indicating that economic recovery, while fragile, remains underway.
“The PCI performance in the first two months
02.09.2011
January PCI off 0.3% but holds onto most of December’s gains; Recovery sustained but not enough to drive meaningful employment
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., January 11, 2011 - The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers, fell 0.3 percent in January, giving up some, but retaining much of, December’s exceptional 1.8 percent sequential gain. On a year-over-year basis, the PCI increased 3.4 percent in January, making it the fourteenth straight month of year over year growth.
Yet another factor affecting January’s PCI figure is the
01.11.2011
Stronger December and November performance establishes new peak for 2010, offsets last three months of decline, and signals optimism at start of New Year
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., January 11, 2011 - The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers, surged 2.4 percent in December and pushed the PCI above its previous 2010 peak established in May. This performance, combined with November’s 0.4 percent increase, was enough to offset three previous consecutive months of decline.
“The latest PCI data further evidences the positive economic sentiment felt since
12.07.2010
November growth too weak to offset third-quarter declines; Forecasts for industrial production are adjusted downward
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., December 7, 2010 - The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers, and consumers, grew 0.4 percent in November following three consecutive months of decline. The growth, while positive, is not enough to offset the 0.6 percent decline that the PCI saw the previous month, nor the 2.1 percent decline experienced in the PCI since July. Though on a year-over-year basis the PCI is up, the three month moving
11.09.2010
Third consecutive month of weaker inventory movement comes amid forecast of 0.16 percent erosion in Industrial Production and nominal 1.3 percent growth in GDP, says Pulse of Commerce Index
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., November 9, 2010 - The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers, and consumers, fell 0.6 percent in October following a decline of 0.5 percent in September and a decline of 1.0 percent in August. The three consecutive month decline is the first since January 2009, when the U.S. was still deep in recession. The
10.13.2010
PCI-based Forecast for Q3 2010 GDP Growth Sinks to 0.7% to 1.7%; PCI-based Outlook for September Industrial Production Growth Nears Zero with Even Odds for a Negative Indication
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. & LOS ANGELES, Calif., October 13, 2010 – The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers, and consumers, fell .5 percent in September after falling 1.0 percent in August, which is the first time the index has experienced a consecutive monthly decline since January 2009. Furthermore, August and September 2010 together produced the worst combined two-month decline since the recessionary
09.14.2010
August falls 1 percent, reducing hope for significant employment gains
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., September 14, 2010 – The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) by UCLA Anderson School of Management fell 1 percent in August, a disappointing number that closes out an erratic summer in the PCI. The decline indicates an economy that is struggling to move forward, following July’s increase of 1.7 percent and June’s drop of 1.9 percent.
While the boost in the July PCI showed a U.S. economy in slow recovery, index experts warned last month that August and September must deliver exceptional results to support a strong, third
08.11.2010
1.7 percent increase further dispels fears of double-dip recession
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., August 11, 2010 – All signs continue to point to an economy in recovery with the latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) by UCLA Anderson School of Management. The July PCI climbed 1.7 percent after dropping 1.9 percent in June.
Though the PCI fell significantly in June, a careful examination of the daily data revealed that June was not as bad as the headline number suggested because of a late Memorial Day and due to the second half of June being stronger than the first. This
07.13.2010
Index experts say don’t be misled by June’s drop…there’s more to the number than meets the eye
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., July 13, 2010 – The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) by UCLA Anderson School of Management tumbled 1.9 percent in June after its impressive 3.1 percent gain in May. Coming in the midst of other disappointing economic reports, the PCI’s drop seemingly reinforces the fear that the economy is on the brink of a double-dip recession, but further analysis tells a different story, according to PCI Chief Economist Edward Leamer.
“While June’s number is substantially down, erasing two-thirds of May’s great gain,
06.10.2010
Year-Over-Year Increase Approaches Growth Rate Required to Drive Down Unemployment
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., June 10, 2010 – With a monthly increase not seen since February 1999, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) by UCLA Anderson School of Management climbed 3.1 percent in May. The increase represents the strongest indicator yet from the PCI that the U.S. economy is on the upswing. The May results suggest the recovery is on pace for GDP growth in the healthy range of 3 to 5 percent for the second quarter of 2010, moving closer to the 5 to 6 percent increase necessary to drive...
3 Comment(s) »05.12.2010
Year-Over-Year Growth is Positive but Remains Stuck at a Slow Rate
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., May 12, 2010 – With the release of April’s figures, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) by UCLA Anderson School of Management is showing flat, overall performance during the first four months of 2010. The PCI in April fell 0.3 percent, suggesting the economic recovery may have stalled, although an uptick in consumer spending could continue to drive a slow but steady recovery. Year-over-year growth of 6.5 percent in the PCI marks the fifth straight month of steady increase at “better than normal” levels. However, year-over-year growth...
0 Comment(s) »04.13.2010
March Gain of 1 Percent Puts Q1 2010 GDP Growth at High End of Expectations
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., April 13, 2010 –The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®) by UCLA Anderson School of Management staged a healthy comeback in March, with the PCI growing by 1 percent, making up for February’s snowstorm-induced decline of 0.7 percent. The adjusted index grew from 107.4 to 108.5, continuing its climb from a recessionary low of 100.7 in June 2009. With the PCI essentially flat over the first two months of the year, the March increase signals the U.S. economy remains in steady recovery. Continuing another...
0 Comment(s) »03.10.2010
Flat Growth Over First Two Months of 2010 Suggests a Strong March Needed to Sustain GDP Growth
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., March 10, 2010 – Results from the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI)® by UCLA Anderson School of Management show the U.S. economy essentially flat over the first two months of the year, with a February decline offsetting the modest gains previously reported for January. With the index number this month enhanced to include adjustments for monthly workdays as well as seasonality, February fell 0.7 percent, following January’s increase of 0.6 percent. This flat performance follows a robust 2.8 percent gain in...
0 Comment(s) »02.10.2010
Index Drops in January after Exceptionally Strong December; Foretells Industrial Production Index
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., Feb. 10, 2010 – Results from a major new econometric report – the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® by UCLA Anderson School of Management – show the U.S. economy fell in January after a significant increase in December, with the index falling at an annualized rate of 36.8 percent. The more reliable three-month moving average for January managed to show a 3.3 percent gain at an annualized rate following the exceptional annualized rate of 14.6 percent in the previous month.
The index is based on an analysis of...
1 Comment(s) »02.10.2010
New Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® Leverages Fuel-Consumption Data to Measure U.S. Economic Activity; Mirrors Industrial Production Number
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., Feb. 10, 2010 – Ceridian Corporation today announced the release of a new economic indicator, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® by UCLA Anderson School of Management, developed in conjunction with economists at UCLA Anderson School of Management and Charles River Associates. It is a first of its kind indicator tracking the state and possible future direction of the U.S. economy. Ceridian today simultaneously announced the January index results, which showed a drop in January after a significant increase in December.
The...
0 Comment(s) »01.14.2010
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® showed the U.S. economy improved significantly in December 2009, with the index jumping at an annualized rate of 60.8 percent, following a decent November number that grew at an annualized rate of 8.6 percent. The last two months of 2009 made solid moves forward, but the fourth quarter of 2009 (October – December) grew more slowly at a 7.3 percent rate. The fourth quarter results include a disappointing October and suggest the economic recovery will not be strong enough to drive down the unemployment level much below 10 percent any time soon.
