April Index: What PCI's Decline Means

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Chief Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson discuss the PCI in relation to the job market and offer a regional analysis.

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December PCI IncreasesDecember PCI Increases Chief PCI® economist, Ed Leamer, explains that December’s 0.2% increase is too small of a gain as the PCI anticipated a surge in trucking to make up some of the lost ground that was felt over the last six months; the PCI is still 1.2% below its June 2011 level.
November PCI IncreasesNovember PCI Increases Chief PCI® economist, Ed Leamer, is disappointed that Christmas did not come early to the trucking industry, as evidenced in the November PCI numbers. November’s data suggests that trucking activity is not keeping up with the strong retail sales seen in October and on Black Friday.
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September PCI FallsSeptember PCI Falls Chief PCI® economist, Ed Leamer, warns that September’s PCI number is alarming. In the three month period since June, trucking activity has been declining at the annualized rate of 10 percent per year, a rate that is symptomatic of a recession.
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July Index DipsJuly Index Dips Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer addresses the debate surrounding a possible recession and explains that although July’s number is weaker, the PCI does not indicate that we’re in a recession; Leamer points to the PCI activity during an actual recession where the trucking activity plummets.
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May Index FallsMay Index Update Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer discusses May's results and explains why the outlook for the economy is not good.
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March Index UpMarch Index Up Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson discuss March’s results, examine the quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year numbers, and make forecasts for the upcoming GDP and IP reports.
February Index DownFebruary Index Down Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson discuss February's results and examine what could be factored into the loss, as well as the continued year-over-year growth and correlation with government indices.
January Index DownJanuary Index Update Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson assess the January PCI data, provide insight on the year-over-year growth, and explain how the record-breaking snowfalls experienced in the U.S. this January have impacted trucking activity in certain regions.
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