The Index

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Chief economist Edward Leamer provides an overview of the index and its tracking of real-time diesel fuel purchases to measure U.S. economic activity.

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December PCI IncreasesDecember PCI Increases Chief PCI® economist, Ed Leamer, explains that December’s 0.2% increase is too small of a gain as the PCI anticipated a surge in trucking to make up some of the lost ground that was felt over the last six months; the PCI is still 1.2% below its June 2011 level.
November PCI IncreasesNovember PCI Increases Chief PCI® economist, Ed Leamer, is disappointed that Christmas did not come early to the trucking industry, as evidenced in the November PCI numbers. November’s data suggests that trucking activity is not keeping up with the strong retail sales seen in October and on Black Friday.
October PCI RisesOctober PCI Rises Chief PCI® economist, Ed Leamer, explains that October’s data shows that trucking is rolling again, however, the decline in the three-month moving average is symptomatic of an economy that is having a hard time finding any traction.
September PCI FallsSeptember PCI Falls Chief PCI® economist, Ed Leamer, warns that September’s PCI number is alarming. In the three month period since June, trucking activity has been declining at the annualized rate of 10 percent per year, a rate that is symptomatic of a recession.
August PCI IdlesAugust PCI Idles Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer explains that August’s 1.4 percent decrease in the PCI is alarming, particularly given the context that we are in the midst of a national debate on whether or not the U.S. will experience another economic decline.
July Index DipsJuly Index Dips Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer addresses the debate surrounding a possible recession and explains that although July’s number is weaker, the PCI does not indicate that we’re in a recession; Leamer points to the PCI activity during an actual recession where the trucking activity plummets.
June Index RisesJune Index Rises Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer explains the “she loves me she loves me not” pattern that the PCI has been reporting over the last year in addition to the main drivers for the economy’s uncertain growth.
May Index FallsMay Index Update Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer discusses May's results and explains why the outlook for the economy is not good.
April Index DipsApril Index Dips Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer discusses April’s results and tells the story of the Pulse of Commerce Index in relation to GDP, the inventory cycle and the trend for GDP growth.
March Index UpMarch Index Up Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson discuss March’s results, examine the quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year numbers, and make forecasts for the upcoming GDP and IP reports.
February Index DownFebruary Index Down Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson discuss February's results and examine what could be factored into the loss, as well as the continued year-over-year growth and correlation with government indices.
January Index DownJanuary Index Update Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson assess the January PCI data, provide insight on the year-over-year growth, and explain how the record-breaking snowfalls experienced in the U.S. this January have impacted trucking activity in certain regions.
December Index: Up 2.4 PercentDecember Index: Up 2.4 Percent In this video, Chief Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson assess the December PCI data, provide a recap of the PCI’s 2010 activity, and share their outlook for the future.
November Index: Up SlightlyNovember Index: Up Slightly Chief Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson assess the November data as the PCI indicates that inventory movement is slightly up following three consecutive months of decline. They discuss that while the growth is positive, it is not enough to offset the 0.6 percent decline that the PCI saw in October.
October Index: Down .6 PercentOctober Index: Down .6 Percent Chief Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson assess the October data as the PCI enters its first three consecutive month decline since January 2009, suggesting that the upcoming holiday season is beginning on a down note, yet calling for a better holiday than last year.
September Index: Down .5 PercentSeptember Index: Down .5 Percent for a Second Consecutive Monthly Decline Pulse of Commerce (PCI) Chief Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson say economy has stalled citing second consecutive monthly drop in indexed activity; economy lacks momentum as PCI-based forecasts for Q3 GDP and Sept. IP near new lows.
August Index: Down 1.0 PercentAugust Index: Down 1.0 Percent Chief Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson assess the disappointing end to the PCI's erratic summer and suggest that strong inventory rebuilding and import growth are no longer helping propel the economy forward.
July Index: Up 1.7 PercentJuly Index: Up 1.7 Percent Chief Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson discuss the PCI's credibility and how the next two months will determine whether we can feel more optimistic about the economy's direction. (08.11.10)
June Index: Down, but not suggestive of double-dipJune Index: Down, but not suggestive of double-dip Chief Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson discuss the PCI's 1.9 percent decline in June, and the effect of a late May 31 Memorial Day holiday on both May and June numbers. (07.13.10)
May Index: PCI Up 3.1 PercentMay Index: PCI Up 3.1 Percent Chief Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson discuss the PCI's excellent growth in May and what it means for the economic recovery. (06.10.10)
April Index: 0.3 Percent DeclineApril Index: 0.3 Percent Decline Chief Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson discuss April's PCI decline that suggests a weaker economy than other indices might indicate. (05.12.10)
April Index: What PCI's Decline MeansApril Index: What PCI's Decline Means Chief Economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson discuss the PCI in relation to the job market and offer a regional analysis. (05.12.10)
March Index: 1 Percent GrowthMarch Index: 1 Percent Growth Ceridian's Craig Manson and chief economist Ed Leamer provide analysis of what March's 1 percent growth number tells us about the direction of economy. (04.13.10)
March Index: Outlook on Job MarketMarch Index: Outlook on Job Market Chief economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian's Craig Manson discuss what's needed next quarter to see job market improvement as well as analysis of the PCI's regional numbers.
WebinarWebinar "Understanding the Data and its Implications" webinar conducted on March 3, 2010.
February Index: Snowstorm ImpactFebruary Index: Snowstorm Impact Without the bad weather, February would be cause for celebration, but the month also shows the PCI can pick up economic signals before other indicators.
February Index: HypothesisFebruary Index: Hypothesis Chief economist Ed Leamer and Ceridian’s Craig Manson provide perspective on the impact February snowstorms had on the index.
The IndexThe Index Chief economist Edward Leamer provides an overview of the index and its tracking of real-time diesel fuel purchases to measure U.S. economic activity.
Importance of the IndexImportance of the Index Learn why the analysis of real-time diesel fuel consumption data and the movement of goods is a credible indicator of the U.S. economy and can benefit businesses, government leaders and other organizations.
How It WorksHow it Works Chief economist Edward Leamer explains how fuel payment card processing at truck stops across the U.S. supplies the data for a reliable index that is more timely than other leading indices.
A Unique IndexA Unique Index Chief economist Edward Leamer describes the unique strengths of a real-time, transaction-based index compared to the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production Index.
A New Kind of DatabaseA New Kind of Database The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index is a first of its kind indicator that measures “main street” transactions on a second-by-second basis.