The Motley Fool
01.17.2012
At The Motley Fool, we poke plenty of fun at Wall Street analysts and their endless cycle of upgrades, downgrades, and "initiating coverage at neutral." Today, we'll show you whether those bigwigs actually know what they're talking about. To help, we've enlisted Motley Fool CAPS to track the long-term performance of Wall Street's best and worst.
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Calculated Risk
01.13.2012
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, rose 0.2 percent in December following the 0.1 percent increase in November and the 1.1 percent increase in October.
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Seeking Alpha
01.12.2012
Recently the media has been awash in reports about the strength in the underlying industrial production reports. However, one indicator may be signaling that the recent upticks in production may be about to fade.
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Global Economic Intersection
01.11.2012
The December 2011 Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI) showed an increase of 0.2% following the 0.1% increase in November and the 1.1% increase in October. This is evidence of a expanding economy. This index is designed to anticipate GDP.
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Money News
12.13.2011
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers, rose 0.1 percent in November following a 1.1 percent increase in October.
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SeekingAlpha
12.13.2011
The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI) suggests that economic activity improved slightly in November. The seasonally adjusted index climbed 0.13% from October and climbed 0.92% above the level seen in November 2010.
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Jeff Berman Logistics Management
12.13.2011
With the economy showing some slight signs of growth, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI) was up for the second straight month in November, with a 0.1 percent gain on the heels of October’s 1.1 percent rise.
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William Cassidy Journal of Commerce
12.13.2011
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index was essentially flat in November, despite stronger economic activity and higher retail sales. The index rose 0.1 percent from October, after rising 1.1 percent that month from September.
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Commercial Carrier Journal
12.13.2011
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index released Tuesday, Dec. 13, rose 0.1 percent in November following a 1.1 percent increase in October. Over the past three months compared to the prior three months, the PCI – based on real-time diesel fuel consumption data for over-the-road trucking – declined at an annualized rate of 4.8 percent.
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Calculated Risk
12.13.2011
This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Increased 0.1 Percent in November.
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TruckingInfo
11.10.2011
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index rose 1.1% in October after three consecutive months of negative numbers, offsetting the 1% decline in September. However, the economic experts at UCLA note that that means the three-month moving average is still falling.
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Calculated Risk
11.09.2011
This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Increased 1.1 Percent in October, Offsetting the 1.0 Percent Decline in September
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Rich Smith The Motley Fool
10.18.2011
Is our economy racing toward a double-dip recession? In recent weeks, you see, a disturbing number of reports from the U.S. transportation sector have begun filtering out. What they suggest is that the U.S. is indeed heading for a return to tough times.
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Jack Katzanek The Press Enterprise
10.17.2011
The Ceridian-UCLA “Pulse of Commerce” Index, which tracks the sale of diesel fuel by motorists who used debit cards provided by the financial services firm Ceridian, declined 1 percent in September from the previous month, a report released last week found. The third-quarter decline was the steepest since the recession days of early 2009, suggesting that the economy is not receiving a significant end-of-the-year boost from the shipment of goods to warehouses and stores.
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Seeking Alpha
10.12.2011
The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that economic activity slowed again in September, with the seasonally adjusted index declining 1.05% from August and dropping 0.22% below the level seen in September 2010.
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Doug Short Business Insider
10.12.2011
The latest Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index(PCI), a measure of the economy based on diesel fuel consumption, is now available. The published report highlights the 1.0% decline in September with the subtitle "This is alarming news for the third quarter and beyond."
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Steve Hansen Global Economic Intersection
10.12.2011
Many will think me crazy, but this is one of the most important indexes for understanding what the economy is going to do in the coming months. Diesel fuel is the blood of the American distribution system – it is moving materials and goods which will be sold at retail level up to several months after the diesel is used.
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Calculated Risk
10.12.2011
This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Falls for the Third Month in a Row – Down 1.0 Percent in September.
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Calculated Risk
09.13.2011
This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Remains in Idle – Down 1.4 Percent in August
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Global Economic Intersection
09.13.2011
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI), which is based on diesel consumption and designed to mimic GDP, has declined 1.4% in August 2011. Econintersect uses the PCI raw data to help forecast Main Street economy. The projection is a bottoming process for the slowdown (a potential end to less good data).
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Doug Short Seeking Alpha
09.13.2011
The latest Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI), a measure of the economy based on diesel fuel consumption, is now available. The published report highlights the 1.4% decline in August with the subtitle Confirming a "Stalled" Economy. Here is an excerpt from the report followed by a pair of charts to illustrate the behavior of this indicator, the second of which adjusts for population growth.
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Bill McBride Calculated Risk
08.10.2011
This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Idles – Down 0.2 Percent in July.
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Steven Hansen Global Economic Intersection
08.10.2011
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) which is based on diesel consumption fell 0.2% seasonally adjusted. Econintersect’s review of the unadjusted data believes the contraction was greater – being almost 0.5% month-over-month.
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Bill McBride Calculated Risk
07.13.2011
This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index.
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Ian McKendry iMarketNews.com
06.08.2011
The flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers declined in May as higher fuel prices slowed demand for product, data from the trucking industry indicated Wednesday.
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Steven Hansen Global Economic Intersection
06.08.2011
Using the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) for its published purposes, economic activity fell in May 2011.
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Sean Kilcarr FleetOwner.com
05.12.2011
Indeed, truckers are making the best of the slow economic recovery we’re enduring, too, for those that survived the hideous “Great Recession” of 2007-2009 aren’t going to wait around for perfect conditions in order to start making some money.
For example, the latest Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index released by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corp. this week posted a 0.5% drop basis in April, marking a continuation of what’s being dubbed “see-saw economic performance” over the past twelve months.
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Calculated Risk
05.11.2011
This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce IndexTM
This index does appear to track Industrial Production over time (with plenty of noise) and this suggests a weaker reading for April. Industrial Production for April will be released on May 17th
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Agustino Fontevecchia Forbes.com
05.11.2011
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index’s (PCI) results indicate that GDP growth will be “good, not great” at 2% to 3%, still well below the levels needed to drive significant improvements in the unemployment situation.
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Steven Hansen Global Economic Intersection
05.11.2011
Diesel use in the USA was less good year-over-year (YoY) in April 2011. As the majority of goods are moved using diesel – diesel usage is one of the metrics Econintersect uses to gauge the economy.
Due to government data combining fuel oil with their statistics, Econintersect uses the unadjusted data provided by Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI). The index is based on real-time fuel consumption data for over the road trucking collected by Ceridian
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Daniel Kehrer BizBest
04.19.2011
Small business owners don’t generally follow broad based economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production, national unemployment or hundreds of others produced by the federal government. But there’s a new kid on the economic forecasting block that’s worth checking...
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index – or just PCI for short – is a first-of-its-kind, real time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers.
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Geert De Lombaerde Nashville Post Business
04.15.2011
The four-state region covering Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi and Alabama posted above-average growth last month, according to the latest edition of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, which measures trucking activity.
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Calculated Risk
03.09.2011
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation fell 1.5% on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis in February, after falling 0.3% in January. The PCI in the first two months of 2011 has now given up all of December’s exceptional 1.8% gain.
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Steven Hansen Global Economic Intersection
03.09.2011
Is diesel consumption beginning to fall because of high prices? This question is front and center as the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) continues to become less good, and….
……fell 1.5% on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis in February, after falling 0.3% in January. The PCI in the first two months of 2011 has now given up all of December’s exceptional 1.8% gain.
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John Keefe CBS MoneyWatch.com – The Macro View
12.20.2010
… Here’s a new measure that I have mentioned a few times, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index. It compiles the sales of diesel fuel around the country, giving us a contemporaneous look at how much stuff is being made, sold and shipped around the U.S. It weakened for a few months, just as industrial production did, but it ticked up again in November.
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Steve Viuker BizBox by Slate
11.10.2010
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers, and consumers, fell 0.6 percent in October following a decline of 0.5 percent in September and a decline of 1.0 percent in August.
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Bill McBride Calculated Risk
11.09.2010
This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index™
This is a new index, and doesn't have much of a track record in real time, although the data suggests the recovery has had a "time out" since May.
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Mary Ann Milbourn The Orange County Register
“Handling Hard Times” blog
11.09.2010
Retailers appear to have cut down on shipments to avoid excess holiday inventories, an action that has sapped some of the strength from the economy, according to a new report released by Ceridian-UCLA Tuesday.
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Mike "Mish" Shedlock MISH’s Global Economic Trend Analysis
11.09.2010
Last night I had the pleasure of speaking with Ceridian Chief Economist Ed Leamer about their shipping index and what trends in fuel usage suggests for holiday sales. We also discussed the likelihood of a double-dip recession. First let's take a look at the report.
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Scott Grannis Seeking Alpha
11.09.2010
The UCLA/Ceridien Pulse of Commerce Index has registered a 3-mo. slump through October. While this confirms other signs of a pause in the economy's recovery process (they called it a "recovery time out"), it doesn't correlate with other signs of continued growth (e.g., rising industrial metals prices, strong corporate profits, growth in air travel, growth in money supply).
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TPC Pragmatic Capitalism
09.14.2010
Ceridian’s Pulse of Commerce Index is still showing weakness, however, not signs of a double dip (via Ceridian): The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management fell 1 percent in August, a disappointing number that closes out an erratic summer in the PCI. The decline indicates an economy that is struggling to move forward, following July’s increase of 1.7 percent and June’s drop of 1.9 percent.
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Bill McBride Calculated Risk
09.14.2010
This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index...“The August data is obviously discouraging after the cautious optimism created from July’s report,” said Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist. “There is not much to feel good about with the August data in terms of the unemployment picture, but there is a silver lining in that the August PCI is still far from double-dip territory."
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Scott Grannis Seeking Alpha
08.12.2010
This index (I'm showing the seasonally-adjusted, 3-mo. moving average version of the index) of real-time diesel fuel consumption by many thousands of trucks criss-crossing the country correlates strongly to industrial production and almost as strongly to GDP. July data is included in this chart, and it suggests we might see a somewhat stronger-than-expected industrial production report next week. In any event, the index has been climbing steadily for more than a year, and is showing no sign of any slowdown in the pace of economic growth.
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Staff Writer Truckinginfo
08.12.2010
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, which is based on diesel fuel sales, continued to show an economy in recovery, according to the UCLA Anderson School of Management. The July PCI climbed 1.7 percent after dropping 1.9 percent in June.
Though the PCI fell significantly in June, a careful examination of the daily data revelead that June was not as bad as the headline number suggested, according to the index publishers, because of a late Memorial Day and the second half of June being stronger than the first. This more positive interpretation of the June data has now been confirmed with a a strong July PCI.
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Cullen Roche Pragmatic Capitalism
08.11.2010
UCLA’s Ceridian Index is pointing to further signs of recovery (via Ceridian Index): All signs continue to point to an economy in recovery with the latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management. The July PCI climbed 1.7 percent after dropping 1.9 percent in June.
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Bill McBride Calculated Risk
08.11.2010
All signs continue to point to an economy in recovery with the latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management. The July PCI climbed 1.7 percent after dropping 1.9 percent in June.
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Bill McBride Calculated Risk
07.13.2010
This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index(TM). The decline in June is just one month (partially offsetting the large increase in May), and the three month average is still increasing.
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Vincent Fernando Seeking Alpha
07.13.2010
Well today another leading indicator is rolling over. It's the Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI), which basically tracks fuel consumption across the U.S. faster than many of the other leading indicator data sets can come out. Thus it gives a bit of a jump ahead of the U.S. industrial production number, at least according to its authors.
Yet due to the sharp drop, the authors of this PCI index have pre-emptively come out to explain why the decline of this index doesn't mean a 'double dip' (ie., a decline in absolute economic activity) is ahead.
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Scott Suttell Crain's Cleveland Business Blogs
06.16.2010
The economy has been so bad for so long that most of us overreact to government reports on key measures, such as the recent disappointing numbers for jobs created in April. But this piece in Bloomberg BusinessWeek argues we should be a little more patient, as “there's a wealth of lesser-known metrics that offer a more nuanced view of the economy — and in some cases, these hidden indicators reflect greater confidence that the recovery is on track and sustainable in the long run.” Case in point: the Pulse of Commerce Index, or PCI, a joint project of Ceridian Corp., a consumer services outfit, and the Anderson School of Management at the University of California at Los Angeles. The magazine says the index climbed 3.1% in May from April, the largest monthly increase since February 1999.
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Mary Ann Milbourn Orange Country Register: Handling Hard Times
06.10.2010
May's unemployment report may have been disappointing, but the economy was picking up steam based on an increase in commercial truck traffic and diesel fuel sales, according to the latest Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index released today. The index rose 3.1% last month — the biggest one month increase since February 1999. In April it fell 0.3%. The West showed the second biggest jump — up 3.8% — after the East North Central, which saw traffic surge 6.2%.
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Daniel Fisher Forbes.com: Street Talk
06.10.2010
A little-noticed indicator that taps directly into the movement of freight offers a hopeful contrast to the dismal performance of the stock market lately. The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index jumped 3.1% in May, the largest monthly increase since February 1999. The index tracks credit-card purchases of diesel fuel at truckstops across the country and provides a real-time indication of how much freight is moving from ports and factories to consumers.
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Calculated Risk
06.10.2010
This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce IndexTM.
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Cullen Roche Pragmatic Capitalism
06.01.2010
More evidence that the economy might be slowing faster than many presume. In addition to last week’s very weak ECRI data the latest data from UCLA’s Ceridian Index shows that the economic recovery is weaker than suspected.
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John Keefe MoneyWatch
05.21.2010
The story got lost behind this week’s horrendous stock market news, but the comments from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, combined with a few other data points, remind us that the U.S. economy is just limping along. I’m not qualified to predict with any accuracy a double-dip recession of the 1981 sort, but this recovery looks weak indeed. Several discouraging reports came out this week...The Ceridian Pulse of Commerce Index, which makes inferences on the broad economy from the amount of fuel purchased by long-haul truckers, was weak for April...
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Mike "Mish" Shedlock MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis
05.13.2010
Inquiring minds are reading the April SpendingPulse™ Retail Sales Report provided by MasterCard Advisors...Please consider Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ Drops 0.3 Percent in April. With the release of April’s figures, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management is showing flat, overall performance during the first four months of 2010. The PCI in April fell 0.3 percent, suggesting the economic recovery may have stalled, although an uptick in consumer spending could continue to drive a slow but steady recovery.
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Bill McBride CalculatedRisk
05.12.2010
This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce IndexTM "With the release of April’s figures, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management is showing flat, overall performance during the first four months of 2010. The PCI in April fell 0.3 percent, suggesting the economic recovery may have stalled, although an uptick in consumer spending could continue to drive a slow but steady recovery."
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Mary Ann Milbourn Handling Hard Times
05.12.2010
The economic head of steam that appeared to be building in the first three months of the year stalled in April although consumer spending may keep it going, according to a monthly index of economic performance released by UCLA today. The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index fell 0.3% in April. The index tracks gasoline purchases by commercial trucks nationwide and has proven to be a good proxy for the economy.
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Bill McBride CalculatedRisk
04.13.2010
This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce IndexTM. Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management staged a healthy comeback in March, with the PCI growing by 1 percent, making up for February’s snowstorm-induced decline of 0.7 percent.
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John Keefe MoneyWatch
04.13.2010
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, based on fuel purchases by long-haul truckers getting their goods to market, showed a report today that is better:The new PCI data also suggests that the economic growth in the first quarter was stronger than the consensus GDP forecast of 2.9 percent. Based on the PCI alone, expected GDP growth for the first quarter of 2010 is 4 percent, putting the economic indicator at the high end of forecasts (fewer than 10 percent of forecasters see GDP growth at 4 percent or greater).
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Sold At The Top Seeking Alpha
04.13.2010
The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that the economic activity increased in March with the seasonally adjusted index increasing 1.02% as compared to February and 5.99% on year-over-year basis. Further, the three month moving average registered another year-over-year increase indicating that the March Industrial Production data (released next week) will likely show a similar annual gain.
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Sean Kilcarr Fleet Owner: Trucks at Work Blog
03.10.2010
There are some mixed messages being flashed on the health of the U.S. economy right now: is a growth spurt shaping up, or do we have another stumble ahead that we’ll have to struggle through? Results from the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI) compiled by the UCLA Anderson School of Management shows the U.S. economy is essentially flat over the first two months of the year, with a February decline offsetting modest gains made in January.
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Stephen Hansen Seeking Alpha
03.10.2010
The lack of jobs growth continues to weigh on Joe Sixpack's world. The preliminary January 2010 data from BLS's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) show that the rate of YoY hiring declines are continuing at a ever slowing rate. Although one month does not make a trend, job openings for January 2010 remained unchanged ending 2.5 years of decline. What is allowing me to spin this JOLTS data positively is the real-time February 2010 diesel fuel consumption data from over the road trucking tracked by Ceridian Corp.
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Bill McBride Calculated RISK
03.10.2010
Blame it on the snow!
Note: The new truck fuel consumption based Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ showed a decline in February too: Disappointing February, Potentially Dampened by Record Snowfalls
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Barbara Kiviat Time.com: The Curious Capitalist Blog
02.03.2010
What does this chart tell us? That diesel fuel purchases might make a useful economic indicator. UCLA's Anderson School of Management is teaming up with the payment processor Ceridian to start releasing a monthly index of diesel purchases at some 7,000 Interstate truck stops.
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Daniel Fisher Forbes.com: Business in the Beltway Blog
01.26.2010
It's lore that Federal Reserve bankers seek out obscure economic indicators to predict the future -- former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan supposedly favored cardboard-box orders. But now there's a really neat indicator which, thanks to the Internet, may be closer to real-time than anything else.
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