What is the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™?
In conjunction with economists at UCLA Anderson School of Management and Charles River Associates, Ceridian has launched the groundbreaking Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ by UCLA Anderson School of Management, which is a first of its kind indicator of the state and possible future direction of the U.S. economy. The index is issued monthly, is based on real-time fuel consumption data for over the road trucking, and closely tracks to the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production Index. By tracking the volume and location of diesel fuel being purchased, the index closely monitors the over the road movement of raw materials, goods-in-process and finished goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers.

Why was it developed?
Ceridian saw the underlying value of the data it collects and validated this through analysis conducted in conjunction with UCLA Anderson School of Management and Charles River Associates. Through the creation of this indicator of the state and future direction of the U.S. economy, it is hoped that several audiences will find useful insights and other business benefits from analyzing the index and underlying data. At a general level, economists and the media will find the information a tool for understanding how the overall U.S. economy is performing and its possible future direction. A further drill-down into more granular data both nationally and for specific regions of the country also may help businesses, manufacturers, retailers and municipalities plan for growth, or prepare for and manage a downturn. Additional customized reports and data are available for purchase.

How is the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index information collected?
Every day across the United States, over the road trucks are fueling up with diesel as they move goods across the country, delivering everything from produce to raw materials to finished goods. Through Ceridian’s electronic card payment services for transportation industries, Ceridian tracks and analyzes the volume of fuel being used by these vehicles on a yearly, monthly, weekly and daily basis. Ceridian processes millions of fuel transactions each year, and the data provides a compelling story about the status and direction of the U.S. economy.

Every time an over the road truck makes a diesel fuel purchase using a Ceridian card, Ceridian’s database captures the location and number of gallons pumped into the tank. Each transaction acts like a sensor providing data to Ceridian. The data is then analyzed to provide a detailed picture of over the road trucking activity along U.S. interstates and at cities, shipping ports, manufacturing centers and border crossings with Canada and Mexico.

How timely is the data and what is the index’s real significance?
Ceridian is leveraging its access to real-time, fuel-consumption data through its electronic card payment services for transportation industries. Because Ceridian processes millions of these fuel transactions each year, it tracks and understands on a daily, even hourly, basis the volume of fuel being purchased for over the road movement of goods. The data is significant because it can be analyzed and converted into an index that offers an indicator of the state and possible future direction of the U.S. economy.

Most of the other data that economists and market watchers rely on to track the economy are based on after-the-fact surveys. The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index is based on real transactions, observed instantaneously, with rich geographic detail, thereby avoiding the pitfalls associated with other methods of collecting data.

Who is the target audience?
The index can provide useful insight to a number of audiences. At a general level, economists and the media will find the information beneficial for understanding how the overall U.S. economy is performing and the direction it is taking. Further customized data is available for purchase and can help businesses, manufacturers, retailers and municipalities as they determine business or investment strategy, plan for growth, or prepare for and manage a downturn.

When and how frequently will the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index be released?
The index will be publically released monthly prior to the release of the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production numbers. The dates vary, but the scheduled release dates will generally fall on or near the 10th day of each month.

How representative is the sample size on which the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index is based?
Ceridian captures millions of transactions from over 25,000 customers, including over the road trucking companies and packaged-goods distribution companies. The sample size is vast and statistically valid for purposes of economic analysis.

How does the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index compare to the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production Index, and how can it help us better understand the broader economy?
The Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production Index and the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index both measure changes in activities that help understand the state and possible future direction of the U.S. economy. The IP index measures output for the industrial sector (such as the manufacturing industry), while the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index measures an input, based on fuel consumption, that correlates to how much is being produced in the economy. Both of these indices can help forecast the direction of the U.S. economy. However, the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index offers great statistical value since it uses real-time data rather than survey data that may need to be reconciled months later. Also, because it is released several days before the Industrial Production Index, it serves as a preview to the Fed’s Industrial Production report.

How does Ceridian validate the data and the index?
Charles Rivers Associates along with UCLA economists vet the index’s data and validate the final index statistics that are released each month.

Can the index provide specialized reports and data, and is the data available for purchase by interested companies?
Yes. Inquiries about customized reports and data can be made by contacting index@ceridian.com or 1-800-729-7655.

Does Ceridian ensure the privacy and security of customer information in the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index?
Yes. Ceridian ensures the privacy and security of the customer data that is used for the index. No company or end-user is identified in the data analysis. The customer identifying data remains anonymous at all steps in the process of creating the index.

Where can I go to get information on the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index?
More information is available at the following website www.ceridianindex.com or by contacting index@ceridian.com or 1-800-729-7655.

Are the information and results of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index indicative of Ceridian’s financial or operational performance?
No. The information used for the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index is a subset of Ceridian’s overall business and is also a subset of the specific business’ activities. The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index is based on diesel fuel transactions and there are a variety of factors that influence the revenue recognized.